The first quarter of 2023 had markets driven most dramatically by US interest rates, their repercussions, and whether the US Federal Reserve would pivot from an interest rate increasing phase to an interest rate decreasing phase. Bonds and Interest Rates…
Author: Paul Fettes
Commentary April 2023 – Will The Fed Pivot
The first quarter of 2023 had markets driven most dramatically by the US interest rates, their repercussions, and whether the US Federal Reserve would pivot from an interest rate increasing phase to an interest rate decreasing phase. Bonds and Interest…
Posted in All Archives, Estate Planning, Financial Planning, Investment, Risk Management Tagged with: bonds, canadian dollar, economic cycle, equities, exchange rate, investment, long duration bonds, pivot, recession, sector rotation
Commentary January 2023 – Applying the Brakes Worked
As summer led to fall wild rebounding growth began to yield to taming. Markets were somewhat pulled back into line to begin to reflect a more conventional reality. Since investment markets tend to anticipate and “front run” what happens in…
Commentary October 2022 – Interest Rate Increases Start Cooling the Economy
During the summer we saw the first shoots starting to appear of interest rate increases reducing the extreme intensity of inflation and thus beginning to cool off the economy. More fading of high single digit inflation is likely around the…
Posted in All Archives, Investment, Risk Management, Uncategorized Tagged with: bonds, business cycle, canadian dollar, covid19, crash, economic crash, economic cycle, equities, exchange rate, investment, recession
Commentary July 2022 – Central Bankers Start Taking Inflation Seriously
This quarter, as inflation continued to thrust forward, the US Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to try to get their inflation-busting measures back on track after being caught off-guard earlier in the year. The only major sign of relief…
Posted in All Archives, Investment, Risk Management, Uncategorized Tagged with: bonds, business cycle, canadian dollar, economic cycle, equities, exchange rate, investment, recession, stock market cycle
Commentary October 2021 – beyond Delta
This summer’s markets were initially driven primarily by concern regarding the potential impact of the Covid Delta variant worldwide. As summer turned to fall the Delta variant’s fade gradually became clear and the dominant factor shifted to supply chain bottlenecks…
Posted in All Archives, Financial Planning, Investment, Risk Management Tagged with: canadian dollar, delta, long term bonds, snowbird, US dollar
Commentary July 2021 – Assessing Economic Progress
With the gradual reopening of businesses post-Covid, we are seeing glimmers of hope regarding the economic recovery. Still, the pandemic created chaos that continues to settle out bit by bit. There were changed buying habits, pent up demand, supply chain…
Posted in Financial Planning, Investment, Risk Management, Tax, Uncategorized Tagged with: bonds, canadian dollar, covid19, enbridge, equities, exchange rate, fairfax financial, pandemic, preferred shares
Commentary April 2021 – A World Refocusing
As the winter progressed, markets were driven more than anything by increasing signs of successful vaccine rollout and hence risk reduction in the global economy. Early in the quarter markets bounced around a bit but the month of March saw…
Posted in Uncategorized Tagged with: capital goods, counter-cyclical, investment, prudent portfolio, rogers communications, shaw communications
Commentary January 2021 – Coping with the Froth
This fall we saw mostly continuation of trends from the summer best described as splitting of the investment world. The prospects of a Covid19 vaccine and US government spending triggered major shifts in currency and certain stocks continued to part…
Posted in Uncategorized
Commentary October 2020 – a touch of rationality
After markets recovered this spring from the worst of the pandemic impact, the summer was a season of optimism, perhaps misplaced optimism, while a little bit of realism arrived with the coming of fall. There will likely be more ups…
We’ve just witnessed the stock market’s echo, echo, echo!
The echo has arrived. Over the course of the spring and summer I have often talked about how most major stock market pullbacks are followed by a rise up and then a second pullback. That second pullback (the echo) is…
Posted in Uncategorized
Rainmaker or Storm-maker? Is this roller coaster coming from Trump?
Recently we in the investment world have been coping with the uncertainty related to the combative trade negotiations between the USA and China. When faced with the Trump regime’s caustic approach to trade negotiations, other nations (e.g. Canada and Mexico)…
Market Pullbacks
Reblogged from Efficertain.com In the last couple months of 2018, the increased volatility of investment markets led two clients to write to get my sense of the market situation and how/if we should react to that. With the sense that…
Posted in Financial Planning, Investment, Risk Management Tagged with: bear market, contrarian, correction, market correction, pullback, recession
Is 4% an Unsustainable Withdrawal Rate
Historically, 4% was thought to be the withdrawal rate the average portfolio could withstand on a long term basis without eating into capital. Recent research indicates that in today’s lower investment return environment, maybe that’s no longer sustainable. We all…