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Commentary January 2024 – A Tale of Two Sectors

The Autumn season in the markets was punctuated by concerns over the Israeli-Hamas fighting and its geopolitical impacts, watching with bated breath about how consumers would digest the insidious impact of interest rates, and in China a property market decline

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Commentary October 2023 – Ready for a Turn

This summer into fall, markets have been fixated on the economic “soft landing” narrative and the notion of rates being higher for longer.  It is true that circumstances have made it tougher than in past cycles to slow down the

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Commentary July 2023 – Déjà vu from 2000

The first quarter of 2023 had markets driven most dramatically by US interest rates, their repercussions, and whether the US Federal Reserve would pivot from an interest rate increasing phase to an interest rate decreasing phase. Bonds and Interest Rates

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Commentary January 2023 – Applying the Brakes Worked

As summer led to fall wild rebounding growth began to yield to taming. Markets were somewhat pulled back into line to begin to reflect a more conventional reality. Since investment markets tend to anticipate and “front run” what happens in

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Commentary October 2022 – Interest Rate Increases Start Cooling the Economy

During the summer we saw the first shoots starting to appear of interest rate increases reducing the extreme intensity of inflation and thus beginning to cool off the economy.  More fading of high single digit inflation is likely around the

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Commentary July 2022 – Central Bankers Start Taking Inflation Seriously

This quarter, as inflation continued to thrust forward, the US Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to try to get their inflation-busting measures back on track after being caught off-guard earlier in the year.  The only major sign of relief

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Commentary April 2022 – Inflation Goes Into Overdrive

As the developed world navigated past the Omicron virus wave, various factors lengthened and/or accelerated the inflation we once hoped would be transitory.  On the economic demand-growth side, various economies saw increased consumer activity, especially in leisure spending.  On the

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Commentary January 2022 – Digesting Omicron and Persistent Inflation Impact

Commentary January 2022 – Digesting Omicron and Persistent Inflation Impact There were many winds washing through the markets in the months leading up to the New Year.  Hence it was a tumultuous time.  To name a few: The Delta variant

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Commentary July 2021 – Assessing Economic Progress

With the gradual reopening of businesses post-Covid, we are seeing glimmers of hope regarding the economic recovery.  Still, the pandemic created chaos that continues to settle out bit by bit.  There were changed buying habits, pent up demand, supply chain

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Commentary April 2021 – A World Refocusing

As the winter progressed, markets were driven more than anything by increasing signs of successful vaccine rollout and hence risk reduction in the global economy.  Early in the quarter markets bounced around a bit but the month of March saw

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Commentary January 2021 – Coping with the Froth

This fall we saw mostly continuation of trends from the summer best described as splitting of the investment world.  The prospects of a Covid19 vaccine and US government spending triggered major shifts in currency and certain stocks continued to part

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We’ve just witnessed the stock market’s echo, echo, echo!

The echo has arrived. Over the course of the spring and summer I have often talked about how most major stock market pullbacks are followed by a rise up and then a second pullback. That second pullback (the echo) is

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